It’s Arc weekend and did they or didn’t they water is an interesting sub plot. Home advantage for a home team is usually provided by mother nature and we’ll know come post time what assistance or not has been provided by the hose owners at Longchamp!
Saturday first to get out of the way and hopefully find a winner or two along the way before Sunday afternoon.
At Ascot in the opener Zeb Un Nisa goes after a prep run in a bid to secure some black type and has been an unfortunate runner a few times to date but looks to have a good opportunity to grab some on a huge weekend for her owner who runs Golden Horn in Paris. She showed lots of speed last year and I think is best ridden as close to the pace as possible. This race is tough but she might have a little more to offer now and would have got black type with a clearer run in a good York race last May. Liam Keniry takes the ride and she looks overpriced to shape a lot better and go closer than rag odds this afternoon.
Cracking day ahead.
Educate has been coming to boil and can win the Cambridgeshire with a proper ride from Tom Queally, tactics have been sporadic and hopefully today is the day for the cracker who is back on a nice mark and will love the tussle in store here. Money came for him last time and more can be expected again hopefully. Abseil is the best of the prominent market leaders and is the saver if putting it all in under Ryan Moore could be masquerading below his level and we will find out more today.
Ayr Gold Cup day and along with the Silver Cup two of the trickiest races to solve of the year.
The Silver Cup has three of interest for me with George Bowen naturally heading the market after recent exploits and sure to be involved along with Eccleston who’s win last time was due and has only a few more pounds to work and arguably will not be enough to halt him going in again for O’Meara.
At a price Barnet Fair will enjoy this decent ground and Tony Hamilton is booked for a rare hook up with the trainer but one that shows up well when they do. The key as it often is here is the draw and Barnet Fair is the type to not make good use of a handy draw so although low the tactics will probably be forced to sit a little and suffer for a more middling position. Hughesie nearly pulled it off in the consolation Stewards Cup at Goodwood and similar needed here but overpriced if putting in that run and a dart at a price where you could take three in the race such is the competition.
Kerry National day gets the go ahead although no Rebel Fitz certainly makes it a more open affair and the ground is going to be super testing for all. David Casey bows out and surely with a winner and a clear round on Long Dog later on the card and a seriously good jockey moves on in one piece to work for Willie Mullins, a top man.
The race itself has one stand out contender for me and that is the light weighted Lots Of Memories, I am a little concerned about the run at Fairyhouse for the the Irish National when seemingly should have had things in favour to go very well but has won here in the past, prepped for the race accordingly and is mighty well handicapped plus the assistance of a super young jockey. I think given the weights and the conditions he will take a bit of beating.
Not sure how Battersea didn’t add to the winners column yesterday, Pallasator did and we roll into a big weekend in Ireland and the UK with a bit of a spring returned to the step. With Battersea another couple of furlongs and he wins well, a slightly luckier trip for pilot Andrea Atzeni and he probably wins well too but Jamie Spencer has arguably never ridden better than right now and he was super yesterday.
Rain is here and here in spades in Ireland – we might get denied the clash of Gleneagles and Golden Horn the two spears of a serious Champion Stakes this evening. The track have done everything to get them there and Aidan O’Brien will no doubt leave it very late to decide. I’d have been with Gleneagles on proper good ground, now happy to watch and enjoy what hopefully is the full field take their chances.
Tricky day again in store…..
Doncaster see’s Battersea back on track, promises a lot and can deliver here on decent ground and what seems the right race. Roger Varian has been patient and the back end season form of last year still sits nicely in the memory banks. Not the biggest price but that is down to what is expected by many not just myself.
Pallasator is a giant and hasn’t had a ride go to plan this term, Sir Mark Prescott’s horse is capable of rolling the field into submission and if given that kind of ride and allowed to get into it with half a mile to go I think he can take the Doncaster Cup at a fair price this afternoon. The best in the race arguably on what hasn’t been his best efforts so to expect him to take front rank here and prevail is a fair assumption, a few fences in the way and he’d be a sure thing!
A quick spin through today’s wagers across a busy day. Next weekend of course see’s the ICW in Ireland at Leopardstown and the Curragh which will be a step up again on last year – can’t wait.
At Haydock in the 2.00pm Superior Mile it is a shame no Ivawood on show as at around the 3/1 mark looked a class above but it opens up for Captain Cat to repeat the feat of last season and Balty Boys looks the main danger again. Not concerned over the two outings this term without sparking it is the ease in the ground that is a slight worry but overpriced to win again and Charlton’s runners are firing.
Some little run of near misses going on and whilst we’ve hit a few nice prices to outrun their odds it hasn’t clicked. Pay back is never far away and a few today may well be up to delivering having gone close a few times for this column this Flat season.
Suzi’s Connoisseur is just that type who hasn’t got reward for some super runs this term and conditions ideal today for a big run under returning pilot Oisin Murphy whos is doing most things right at the moment. Caught the attention again last time at this track, back to 7f and a bit of juice in the ground this looks the day granted no hard luck left to hamper Stuart Williams charge this afternoon.