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Schedule – November 2015

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Test

Improving Safety Check fancied to win again at Newbury

The Dubai Duty Free Cup, run over 7f at Newbury, looks like a good quality Listed race and we will have a gander to see what can be seen! Eleven runners are set to line up and Andrew Balding’s Absolutely So tops the market at the moment, with 11/4 being the general quote around for him.

 

He has the best recent form in the race having scored at this level last time around York, getting the better of next time out Turkish Group 2 winner Glory Awaits in the process. The fact that he is running here minus a penalty is an obvious positive but there are some worries in place.

 

They mainly concern the ground as it’s likely to be quite quick at Newbury and Absolutely So, in an ideal world, wants his toe sinking into the floor, at least a bit. I suppose you can take positives from that latest run as the ground was good but this surface will be quicker again and it’s off-putting.

 

On all known evidence, Lady Lara is capable of running to her best on most surfaces and she could be a lively candidate as well. I just don’t know how she’ll perform over this 7f trip, with all of her recent form coming over a mile or further. She doesn’t look void of speed or anything but this will be a proper test and it wouldn’t be a surprise were she to finish her race off later than ideal.

 

SAFETY CHECK, whilst yet to prove himself away from handicap company, is a progressive sort and he’s the one I’m most interested in given the current quotes of 4/1. Although fortunate at Ascot last time out (Redvers threw it away), to win such a competitive handicap as a 101-rated 3-year-old taking on his elders entitles him to a lot of respect and away from the favourite, this looks like an easier task to a point. The ground is certainly in his favour as he floats over firm conditions and the flat track won’t bother him, I don’t think. A good gallop would help to no end but there are a couple who could ensure it’s a fair test, so that’s encouraging at least. If things pan out, I think that he’ll take plenty of beating.

 

Selection for the Dubai Duty Free Cup (4:40 Newbury; Friday, 19th September):

 

Godolphin Silks Safety Check – 4/1, available generally.

 

Update: It’s raining at Newbury so you can ignore almost everything said in this piece! Bah.

 


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