James Boyle’s Horses To Follow – Week One
By James Boyle
Good afternoon folks. For this column – rather simplistically – from the Flat season onwards I will be documenting all of my eye-catchers/horses-to-follow with a view to hopefully making a decent profit backing them to 1pt level stakes. Now, ideally, some judgement should be applied going forward when it comes to siding with said selections (as conditions may be wrong next time, etc, etc), but they have previously come up trumps when backed “blind” and I’d like to think they will do so again!
The original list (located elsewhere!) began in July of 2013, had 95 runners between then and now (admittedly, a small sample size), and resulted in 18 winners. At the early morning prices, those winners yielded a profit of +67.70pts at LSP (+71.30% ROI) and a profit of +33.53pts (+35.30% ROI) at SP.
Of course, it will take many, many, many more runners to judge whether there’s a true long-term edge in simply sticking by these horses, but hopefully there’ll be some decent picks listed here in the coming months and years, and that we’ll get some enjoyment out of it at worst. A few horses will be added to the list in a new column every week, whilst some under-performers will be removed when the time is deemed right (I’ve got that wrong a few times before!), and a brief summation of the method to my madness will accompany them.
The main aim will be to pick out horses likely to be overpriced next time out, although I will generally give them a few spins before giving up the ghost. As with anything in this game, there will be frustrating losing runs from time-to-time (the average odds of the runners will be quite high) and I would advise that you only bet what you can afford to do without.
Horses To Follow – Week One:
Burano (3rd May) –
Finished seventh of 19 in a hot 1m 1f handicap at Newmarket, beaten little more than 6-lengths. On the face of it, he simply ran to something around his mark but that doesn’t tell the whole story as – like on his British reappearance in the Spring Cup at Newbury – Jimmy Fortune managed to run him into all of the trouble following an original sit towards the rear of the field. He only got going properly inside the last furlong or so at a track where you really need to build up momentum and was a lot better than the bare form would suggest. The market had said that day mightn’t be “the day”, as he drifted to a BSP that was twice his morning price, and I’m inclined to think (I’m inclined to be certain!) that he’s being lined up for something. Maybe next month’s Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot would be ideal given the likely test on offer and there’s a big run in him, at worst, should he line up in good form.
Moviesta (3rd May) –
They all ended up in a bit of a heap in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday and no doubt a few of them could be taken forward. However, Moviesta, who was one of the most progressive animals in 2013, shaped really well in fifth place and may have the ability to give Bryan Smart another Group 1 success in due course. I thought that he ran as if he’d improve plenty for the outing, being keen in rear (despite what appeared to be a furious pace) and half blowing up mid-race before running on when it was all too late. The way his yard have been going so far would suggest that he’s a likely improver for a run, even ignoring the visual impression, and it will be interesting to see how he gets on next time. Whether he’s quite up to making an imprint at the top level remains to be seen (finished stone-last in the 2013 Nunthorpe when fancied; clearly didn’t run to close to form), but Saturday’s spin was an encouraging beginning to the new season and he looks just the sort to improve as a 4-year-old. In the coming months, we’ll find out whether that’s right!
Signup to our RSS feed