Saturday at Goodwood – preview with THT Racing
Today is the day I have been waiting for, and the day connections of a certain horse have been waiting for too. It may be obvious and it may even have a whiff of muggy about it but today’s NAP is a strong one and at 16/1 we can make the money back and more if he does the business.
Barnet Fair is the horse in question. This is seemingly the only day in the calendar that matters for this horse this season and you won’t have seen a more obvious plot for quite some time. You simply need to look at the replay of his last run to see what I mean, Hughesie never touched him but in the process got to know him and he will have a great chance of a winner on his final day in the saddle.
At the end of the day, however it is a 28 runner sprint, so you need a lot of luck. 16/1 paying five places is a bet I can’t fathom you not seeing some sort of return on though. He’s on the same mark as when winning this last year and despite most riders barely moving on him this season, the most he has been beaten is by 5 lengths.
If you are looking for some sort of coverbet then Go Far and Links Drive Lady could both go close both at a huge 40/1 and may be worth tidying your account balance on each way but this will hopefully be Barnet Fair’s day.
John Gosden has won the Nassau the last three years and he looks to have a very strong hand with the exciting Bright Appraoch, (albeit chucked into the deep end with her pockets full of stones and her feet tied together) the never nearer Oaks runner Jazzi Top and the Prix De Diane winner Star Of Seville.
It is the latter that I really like for this, she has some of the best form and was right there in the Oaks when badly hampered from which recovery was impossible. That trip was too far anyway and 10f is exactly what she wants as shown by her Group 1 win last time. Frankie and John Gosden have had a memorable season to say the least and this filly can add another feather in the cap of the rejuvenated partnership. At 7/1,
I struggle to see how that doesn’t stand out to the average punter as an extremely appealling each way proposition. Yes the favourite is very classy but she’s been beaten the last twice and while the rest of the field are no pushovers, this looks the stable number one and she has the ideal profile for this race. The jockey is unbeaten when riding her and can make it four from four tomorrow and make it four in a row for the Gosden yard in this race in the process.
For a horse to carry top weight to victory in a race like the Stewards Cup, it has to be a Group level performer and that’s exactly what Tropics is. It’s disappointing to see Pat Cosgrave at Newmarket tomorrow instead of on this lad’s back as I thought he gave him an exceptional ride the last day when only beaten a nose in the Group 1 July Cup at a huge price. That said Adam Kirby was successful the only time he was on board so hopefully it will make little difference.
I presume the top weight statistics aren’t great, they rarely are in a race of this nature but I think this horse has the neccessary talent to defy it. This is his first handicap run in two years, that run being this race two festivals ago when a never nearer sixth. Since then he has won a couple of listed races and a Group 3 and ran a clear career best last time when beaten a whisker by the rapidly improving Muharrar at Newmarket.
This was nominated as his target straight after that race and he has to have a serious chance on that form despite shouldering a big weight. Huntsmans Close and especially Ninjago are the likely dangers but it’s wide open and at 14/1 paying five places, this lad has to be the bet and is the real class angle on the race.
Ignoring a horse having a 100% course record isn’t something I can usually do, especially at a unique track like Goodwood and especially when trained by Mark Johnston. Enlace is the horse in question and goes in the penultimate handicap. She’s been well beaten of late, the latest only seven days ago but that gives us the appealling 10/1 price and reverted to her usual front running tactics returned to this course with my favourite jockey in the saddle, I can’t not have a few quid each way.
Saying that the yard runs three others in the race and knowing my luck this week I’ve backed completely the wrong one. She’s the only course and distance winner in the field and I’m hopeful there may still be a bit of jucie left in her mark, worth a small punt I think.
14.00 Barnet Fair 16/1 ew (5 places) NAP
15.10 Star Of Seville 7/1 ew NB
15.45 Tropics 14/1 ew (5 places)
16.55 Enlace 10/1 ew
It’s been a tough week but this was the day I was looking forward to and I am confident we can turn the tables on Goodwood 2015.
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