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Today’s Info 20th September 2014

A very trappy day in store for punters!

 

If the weather hasn’t put the mockers on some of the races then the minefields of the handicaps at Ayr will certainly test your skills.

 

The nature of my punting lends itself to the large field flat handicaps of course with big fields and open markets so we’ll kick off with the Gold Cup at Ayr.

 

It’s hard to move too far from Fahey and O’Meara in the race with possible winners among there ranks dominating the shape of the race. Alben Star, Rene Mathis and Supplicant all catch the eye from Fahey whilst Watchable, Louis The Pious and Highland Acclaim have profiles of note for O’Meara. It’s not easy to side with one but I am going to go with Rene Mathis at the odds, a couple of blips on the record need not put you off but the ground being quick enough is a slight concern. He gets further and from a middle draw will hopefully be able to sit on a quick pace and use a late burst to get somewhere close. If he hadn’t have run in Ireland he’d be a lot shorter and form with the likes of Muthmir and Almargo is highly commendable. Luck needed and and the price is the main factor of the selection where any number can play a part.

 

The Silver Cup has me in a similar position but Santefisio has long been a favourite of mine and looks to have a chance once more in a race where his late burst could also play a big part having been berthed next to the front end of what should be a serious pace. He can travel and get a position behind the leaders with Philip Makin ready to pounce, will need a decent bit of timing and if he hits the front he will want to defy a past trait of letting one come past, I should own this horse from previous dalliances with him and perhaps now is the pay day. Still a nice price and so Keith Dalgleish’s charge is the suggested play.

 

Ainippe is also a nice type for today but a little shorter than I want to play at, I hope she comes back to winning form.

 

At Newbury I like a few of the shorter ones, Hillstar can have the beating of Tasaday and I’m surprised is the price available, form is solid and deserves to land a pot now. Run into a lot of good types this year and Ryan Moore will be itching to reverse some of those defeats. Tasaday is a grand type but is not guaranteed to run up to her best in my view and can be taken on with a very solid Sir Michael Stoute animal.

 

Also on the card Strath Burn has a race there for the taking now but is priced accordingly so the final bet is in the handicap that follows at 2.55pm. Air Pilot could be a bit of a blot and the run behind Farraaj is clearly strong but it is a similar type in Roseburg who is the class act here is overpriced to confirm that with the favourite. A run blunted by ground to quick at Goodwood means we are not selecting the favourite now but this ease in the going is so important and should be able to let himself down nicely here and I think will have too much for the improving Air Pilot. The rest of the field are certainly not up to the job in my opinion should the top two run there race as expected and Roseburg looks the right one.

 

Advice –

 

Newbury 1.50 – Hillstar 0.75pt Win – 10/3 Powers, BET365 and 3s general

 

Newbury 2.55 – Roseburg 0.75pt Win – 11/2 General

 

Ayr 2.40  – Santefisio 0.75pt e/w – 22/1 General

 

Ayr 3.50 – Rene Mathis 0.75pt e/w – 25/1 General

 

The Judge

 

 


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