Today’s Info 26th June 2014
Sometimes a bet leaps at you at 12.43am in the wee hours…..ok well maybe that is only me.
I like to spin through the racing for the next couple of days late at night and take a quick mental view, early impressions are very often no bet during the beginning to the middle of the week and then by Thursday and Friday I’m itching to find something. So maintaining patience is tricky but has become a habit, go steady then unleash at the weekend cards, then repeat the trick.
Anyway I was hovering over the 3.30 at Newcastle and liked the immediate shape of the race, familiar faces, a few form lines I know without reviewing or starting from scratch and a race I wanted therefore to solve.
The fav ( Baraweez ) is improving and entitled to be prominent in the betting, I have more than enough doubts over the merit of the recent form though to merit the new mark and this is the toughest assignment to date. 5/2 and 3/1 look hardly tempting and price is everything in an open race. Dance and Dance is a consistent and former classier operator than now lines up at eight years of age, the last run is a little flattering if you just take the distance beaten in to account as the race was run and toughed out up top once involved and I can see more of the same here for a new jockey.
The Ruth Carr pair are consistent but at the tilt of the handicap marks now and are hard to enthuse about especially Fort Bastion who is about to have a seventh tough race since April. Heavy Metal for Mark Johnston is in good nick and under a penalty has to be considered but I am hoping he and the others will be relaxed enough in the early parts of the race to allow Norse Blues an easy time of it here.
Recent tactics or perhaps lack of them have seen Norse Blues arrive without his gym kit at the track. Awkward runs on account of ground softening, pace not suiting and tough opposition off a mark high enough can be excused as such but this presents Graham Gibbons with a chance to be positive. The mark is now very fair, if the ground stays quick and the horses around him run as I expect then a front running, or close to a surprise pace maker could be the answer. Gibbons did this when winning at Thirsk in May last year and if he is studying the field against him today he can look forward to a relatively sedate set of chasers.
He was a little more obviously unlucky on his last start behind Dubai Dynamo but is actually now worse off, it’s a few pounds I don’t think is reflective of the difference in the two horses though. Norse Blues is due and with conditions and hopefully a return to previously employed tactics in the offing I’m chancing the 6 year old to run a big race.
Newcastle 3.30 – Norse Blues 0.75pt Win – 10/1 Stans, Betfred, Totesport and BET365
Signup to our RSS feed