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Schedule – November 2015

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Today’s Info, Royal Ascot Day 3

Good morning.

 

Nearly a corker day yesterday with big runs from two long priced selections in the Hunt Cup but they found one or two better than them on the day and that is fair enough. Ayaar was markedly unlucky in running and has to go into your notebooks and Nakuti in the last impressed me again, out of her grade of course but put her in the wins shortly coloumn.

 

Pat Smullen had a magic day, delighted for Weld too and sad to see Treve maybe is not going to blow everything this year but The Fugue was super and nothing can be taken from her. It was really quick there again but fair I thought and the racing has been class.

 

Going to have a few bets today although with tighter contests dominating the the early exchanges it takes a while to warm up. The opener should go to Great War, really like this one and the price is short so it will just be an enjoyable race to watch rather than punt in. The American raider is not one of the stars from there so whilst the price appeals I think and expect O’Brien to get on the board.

 

Cannock Chase is red hot for the Tercentenary at 3.05 and I can understand that. Put a very good one away in Windshear at Newbury and is stepped up a fair bit here but looks well capable. I’m not going to play against or get involved at the prices in single bets.

 

Vazira can continue the theme of the day with a strong chance in the Ribblesdale for de Royer-Dupre and Soumillon. Excellent form in the book and I think this better ground is a big plus for her to improve on that. Inchila ran well in the Oaks but this comes quickly and I expect the French raider to be too good regardless. Happy to play at the prices and she can continue Sea The Star’s excellent run as a sire.

 

The Gold Cup is a magic renewal, far tougher than when Estimate landed it last year. Leading Light is trying to regain the famous race for Aidan O’Brien and this real tough nut doesn’t need much explaining, one blot on the book was the Arc but easily forgiven and deserves to be market leader. Tac De Boistron is intriguing but you’d love to see a shower or two, the watering has taken place but not really enough to get too excited and this improving type just might wish the race was another day with conditions more sutiable. Estimate is on seasonal return which only hardens her task to retain the Cup, connections are happy but I’d be surprised if she can land this again today despite the price being a few points too big this am.

 

I am going to chance Brown Panther to get closest to Leading Light if not win on it’s own merit. The odds without Leading Light appeal enough at 10/3 with a few firms and that with a forecast could be the way to play. Will stay all the way to the line based on what we’ve seen this term, whilst softer ground would not have been a problem he acts perfectly on quicker terrain.

 

Good luck needed of course in the Brittania Stakes and I’m taking one from each end of the market in Mawfoor and Bilimbi for Meehan and Haggas respectively.

 

Mawfoor first is one that was highly tried already in three of his starts last year and returned with promise at Ascot only to then run with Bilimbi in a bog at Haydock. Just the type to relish this kind of test now on better ground and I think is a potential boil over winner that lurks in these types of races. Bilimbi is more obvious and I can forgive the Haydock spin when well fancied as it was a chaotic race and one that suited very few bar the winner that day who re opposes now. Andrea Atzeni is a master in races where you will need to read it quickly and Haggas will have been coming here as soon as he won on return to the course this year. The trip could be shorter than he wants in time but this is stiff and I expect plenty of use to be made from just off the front end.

 

I mentioned Windshear already with regards to Cannock Chase and the Hannon/ Hughes combination goes in the finale. I reckon this one has done enough to merit a shorter price, especially now tackling further on fifth racecourse start. The Cannock Chase form should look very good come post time, I was impressed the time before that when dismissing Collaboration and Elite Army at Sandown and hopefully he continues to go the right way here. Personal Opinion is the other I’d consider but I think we should get a big run from Windshear.

 

That’s the day – luck on side it should be a good one. I will be playing the three favs in the first three races and Brown Panther without the jolly in the Cup, then hoping to have some free ammo to play the prices later!

 

Advice – 

 

Royal Ascot

 

3.45 – Vazira 1pt Win – 3/1 General 

 

4.25 – Brown Panther 1pt Win – 10/3 General without Leading Light

 

5.00 – Mawfoor 0.5pt e/w – 66/1 BetfairSportsBook, Victor, Coral and BET365, 5 places and 1/4 odds

5.00 – Bilimbi 0.75pt e/w – 10/1 Stan J and Bet365, 5 places and 1/4 odds, 9s General

 

5.35 – Windshear 0.75pt e/w – 7/1 General, 4 places and 1/4 odds

 

The Judge

 


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