Today’s Preview with Rory Delargy – 19/9/14
Rory Delargy of the Irish Field continues to bang in the winners, with Orient Class continuing what has been a very profitable week yesterday at a juicy price of 8/1. Today Rory has five selections across the cards:
Whether there is a big advantage to race under the stands rail at Ayr is something of a moot point, as Graham Lee was the only man who wanted to do so yesterday, and his enterprise as much as anything gave him every chance on what I believed was the best horse. The upshot of that winning ride on Orient Class, however, is that most jockeys will assume that the rail is the place to be, and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Those drawn low in the Bronze Cup at 2.40 have little chance of getting across, and it will be interesting to see if they come up the middle or head to the far rail.
MISHAAL has as good a chance of anything on recent form, with his latest third to the criminally underrated Triple Chocolate another commendable effort from a horse who has been in great form all summer. Today’s conditions are similar, and despite the big field, the competition is weaker if anything, so Michael Herrington’s 4-y-o looks a leading player, particularly with the blend of early speed and a high draw which appear prerequisites at the time of writing. He’s also relatively unexposed at sprint trips, and has every chance of progressing further with experience.
My thinking was that the unfashionable nature of the yard would see him go off at around 20/1, but a certain Mr Segal has put paid to that part of the plan. He’s still reasonably priced at around 11/1, however, and shouldn’t shorten up much more.
It’s rather a case of PEA SHOOTER or nothing here, and a bet might well depend on whether low numbers seem disadvantaged in the previous race. Dandy Nicholls 5-y-o has refound his form in some style recently, with a reasonable midfield finish in the Great St Wilfrid followed up by getting touched off in two big field handicaps at Beverley and Doncaster. The hurly burly of this race looks sure to suit him, but again, a draw in stall 3 would not look ideal at first glance. The way to play this is to watch the previous race and if low numbers are not disadvantaged then you need to be backing Pea Shooter as they pass the post in that race, as his price is likely to contract.
MFIFTYTHREEDOTCOM may be dreadfully named, but looks a very solid selection for this mile handicap. The form of his latest second to Big Storm coming received a couple of boosts with the third and fourth both winning next time out, and given how strong he was at the finish over that stiff 7f, the step up in trip looks a positive. He’s confidently expected to shed his maiden tag in a race that might not take that much winning.
There were some good noises coming from Andrew Balding after ABSOLUTELY SO‘s win at York’s Ebor meeting, and possibly a degree of relief the horse had finally delivered in a big handicap after his Wokingham flop, for which he went off favourite. That was all forgotten about though, as he travelled strongly throughout the York contest and when asked to put the race to bed by Oisin Murphy he quickened up and stayed on well all the way to the line. He left the impression there was still more to come and a 6lb rise for the York win looks more than acceptable.
It’s something of a surprise that SPEED CHECK isn’t favourite here, as this looks a dreadful race and he’s one of only a couple that look progressive, having won a couple at Stratford and then following up with plenty in hand (idled close home) at Newton Abbot. He wasn’t so good at Huntingdon last time out, being carried out when under pressure but he was just starting to get a second wind and it’s difficult to believe he wouldn’t have beaten Curragh Hall, who reopposes here. The rain-softened ground might not have helped either and back on a quicker surface looks the one to be with. One or two of those from bigger yards look to have been priced on trainer rather than form, particularly Jonjo O’Neill’s Petrovich, who looks a terrible favourite, especially considering the yard’s good run of form has recently come to a juddering halt (of his last eight runners, seven have been beaten by twenty lengths or more), and it might be left to Over The Air to provide the biggest danger.
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