Today’s Preview with Rory Delargy – 2nd October 2014
Rory Delargy previews six races for Racing FM today – you can hear his thoughts and all of the action live throughout the day via the Listen Live button above or on the App…
2.30 – 3m ½ f Handicap Chase
The first of three handicap chases on the card, this one featuring four horses that you wouldn’t wanting to be trusting your last quid on. In terms of class, Marufo is about two grades better than his rivals and has his easiest chance for a long while, having been dropped another 7lb for his Uttoxeter effort in a 0-120. That wasn’t a bad effort in the contest of this race, being prominent to three out and then getting a little tired and a similar display against these would surely see him close, as long as he cuts out the errors. His jockey wouldn’t be the most stylish you’ve ever seen either, but this could just be a case of sitting in the saddle and making sure nothing untoward happens. Jim Job Jones got his head in front in a poor contest at Worcester, his first win in 18 starts, and a similarly bad race has been found; for a horse with more letters than numbers on his card, and at the lowest level, he makes no appeal at around 8/13, however. Inandover won here last season but that was over another quarter of a mile in softer ground, and he didn’t get on top until late in that contest, so this is arguably not enough of a stamina test for him. Xenophon has won twice in his 44-race career and although these conditions are suitable, he seems to have gone off the boil, rather like most from the yard. At the early prices, Marufo has to be the bet.
3.00 – 2m Handicap Chase
This looks a good opportunity for Red Rosso to get back on the scoresheet. A winner here from the form choice Sportsreport in a similar contest in May, he again showed a liking for the track when not beaten far by Danby’s Legend from a 7lb higher mark. Two lesser efforts at Worcester and Uttoxeter have followed, but back at a track he likes and only 4lb higher than that win, can bounce back in a weak race. A decent pace will suit Red Rosso, being a hold up horse that likes to creep into it, and top weight Accessallareas will almost certainly fill that role. A winner at Worcester in a dreadful race, he then attempted to make all again at Uttoxeter but was given no peace up front and was a spent force a good half mile out. Amateur Jeremy Mahot takes over in the saddle (first ride at the track) from AP McCoy, and he might face a bit of competition for the lead from rank outsider Radsoc de Sivola, which would definitely compromise his chance. Mac’s Grey is winless after 18 tries and tends to get outpaced at crucial times, and the tongue tie goes back on today (was missing at Sedgefield 2 days ago). He’ll have his supporters but looks short enough on what he’s achieved, while Tempuran looked like he might collect here three runs ago when coming to grief, but he’s not bred for fences and has found little for pressure in the past. Cheekpieces go on today (worn once on the flat to little effect) and on balance he has a bit to prove. Mount Welcome and Tri Nations have always had their own ideas about the game – both are capable but unpredictable, and are hard to support as a result.
3.35 – 2½m Handicap Chase
They will jump off in this order – Papradon will lead, Abbey Storm will lie second, Viking Ridge third with Tregaro held up for his customary late run. Papradon keeps on surprising me, and did at Uttoxeter last time when again he jumped his rivals into the ground and the small field here gives him the chance to dominate again; it would require a career best for him to win again, which isn’t impossible in his current mood, but the percentage call is to oppose him, particularly with a few of the yard’s fancied runners running poorly of late. Viking Ridge returned from a long absence to run out an effortless winner at Huntingdon, and an 8lb rise for that win looks lenient. As long as the “bounce” factor doesn’t come into play, he will take the beating. Abbey Storm is a one-paced individual who has yet to fire over fences, often making mistakes, and although Tregaro is in the form of his life, he’s up another 6lb and is held by Papradon on his Uttoxeter form.
3.25 – 2m1f Handicap Hurdle
Our chance of a decent bet here has been thwarted by the move for likeliest winner Tidal Way. I’ve made this my Irish Field Nap having seen the tissue price of around 5/1, and considered sending it out as an early bet when Bet365 went 6/1 at 5pm. That price evaporated pretty quickly, in truth, and the new price got wiped off shortly afterwards in a rather farcical market correction. He’s a 2/1 shot in my book, and with all the firms who priced up early having been stung, he’s unlikely to drift enough to make him of interest. The case for him is straightforward – he won over this C&D off a higher mark last autumn before losing his way, and returns fresh and well handicapped for a yard which tends to do best at this time of year. Devon Drum is the danger, for all a test at this trip wouldn’t suit. Boasting a good Flat pedigree, he’s gained his wins in a junior bumper and an AW maiden, both over 1½m, so stamina is a slight concern, but he’s the type to make considerable improvement now handicapping, and is feared accordingly – in truth, he’s the only one who appeals as a bet at the current prices, with the early quotes on Ubaldo des Menhies and Minella Definitely (priced up at a comical 11/4 each by Bet365) laughable.
5.45 – 1m Handicap
I do love races at Kempton over 1m, particularly in larger fields. The assumption among most punters and pundits alike is that there is a bias towards those drawn low. This is simply not the case, and the markets are often skewed as a result. Horses drawn in stall one over a mile at Kempton have an absolutely dreadful record, and yet the myth persists that they will get the run of the race. As a result of this reinforcement, there is always value to be had in backing those in the outside stalls, who aren’t specifically advantaged (and being trapped wide on a hard puller is an obvious issue), but win their share, and tend to be ignored in the market so that they produce a better P&L figure than those on the rail.
In the opening race, Warbond will be given the brush-off by most due to a wide draw and a poor win record, but he’s got a better chance than such considerations suggest, and has been placed in seven C&D handicaps in his career, as well as scoring off a higher mark over C&D in 2012. He’s on a long losing run, but his mark has fallen as a result, and he was well backed to score here last time, only to get into top gear too late to make a serious impact. Dropped another couple of pounds for that creditable effort, he ought to go well if getting a stronger pace, and this won’t take a great deal of winning.
6.15 – 1m Nursery
Similar comments apply to Father Stone here – an infrequent winner, he is nevertheless proven over C&D, and despite a less sexy profile than the market leaders, has arguably the best form on offer. He has made the frame on all 3 starts over 7f+ at this track, and while he’s clearly not progressing, a repetition of his most recent effort will see him on the premises. That makes his morning price of 11/1 too big, and there is the possibility that his exposed look will see him drift further, giving a bit of extra appeal to those BOG prices.
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