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Schedule – November 2015

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Value in the outsiders on Day 3 – Royal Ascot Preview

We are joined this week for more preview on the Royal meeting by guest tipster THT Racing – check them out on Twitter or read more on the blog http://thtracing.blogspot.co.uk/

 
The Ribblesdale and indeed the entire day three card looks very competitive and pretty tricky to solve. The progressive Curvy now has the services of Ryan Moore and at 8/1 I can totally understand those siding with her in the each way market. The Irish 1000 winner does look very much the one to beat however, and looks likely though far from certain to stay. The Cumani filly is the exact type of horse the trainer excels with and that one looks likely to run a big race but I’m siding with Pandora, at a bigger price than all those mentioned above.

 

I won’t be going mad, but her last run took a huge boost when Star Of Seville won a very competitive Prix De Diane in France the other day and she is certainly no 12/1 shot here with further improvement expected. Connections had once considered the Oaks but have really had this race lined up ever since her run in the Musidora. She is a big filly, is expected to improve for the step up in trip and can give Charlie Hills his second winner at this year’s Royal Meeting.

 

There is a bit of a gamble brewing on War Envoy in the Britannia and I can sort of understand why. There are plenty of improving and unexposed types elsewhere and it is an utter minefield so just a small each way punt for me. Rotherwick can go well to boost that Jack Hobbs/Stravagante formline even more but one I like at a bigger price is one of the Godolphin foursome.

 

Emirates Airline had two runs as a two year old, both disappointing efforts considering his price in the market on both occasions. The summer break/gelding operation and step up in trip from sprinting seemed to work the magic when he won with any amount in hand in a Chelmsford handicap on reappearance. He has since ran once more, finishing a length behind Dissolution, who is favourite for the race after this at time of writing and that form could turn out to be okay. This is before you consider that the 10f trip stretched him that day and he was far too keen – a strongly run race over this trip could be exactly what this horse needs to be shown to best effect.

 

He also gets a hood first time which can only help his cause and should help him to settle a little better. If everything comes together he could run a very big race under Harry Bentley – backing his mounts would have you operating at a very impressive £85 LSP this season. As I say, just a small bet and you need a lot of luck but paying 6 places at 28/1 he is worth a play. (33/1 available but only 4 places)

 

The closing handicap on Day 3 has the aforementioned Dissolution as favourite and he has already been popular and no longer an each way price for me. He has solid claims stepping up in trip but at 11/1 so does Scottish. He was only just nailed by Mr Singh of Gosden’s yard two starts back, who runs in a Group 2 later in the week. He improved from that run to make all last time beating off another Gosden inmate who has since made a mockery of a mark of 86 making Scottish look fairly treated off 91, especially now moving up in trip which looks sure to suit.

 

The worry in a field of this size is that the competition for the lead may be fierce but I don’t think he has to lead to be seen to best effect. This is a step up in class but the Balding inmate is open to improvement and the jockey nominated him as one of his best rides of the week (already had a winner) Paying four places, he looks worth an each way play at 11/1 in the finale.

 

A note of caution – a very trappy day today so I’m playing at half stakes and done a little each way trixie as well as each way singles – don’t give all the profit we’ve made in the last two days straight back to the bookies! Much better racing later in the week to wait for.

 

Selections:

 

15.40 Ribblesdale – Pandora 12/1 each way
17.00 Britannia – Emirates Airline 28/1 each way (six places)
17.35 King George V – Scottish 11/1 each way (four places)


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